【摘要】 近年来,有关我国经济杠杆率高低的讨论非常激烈。有学者运用一些基于经验总结的判断标准,认为当前我国经济已处于高杠杆区间,存在着较大的潜在风险。本文在梳理国内外有关研究成果的基础上,对我国经济的杠杆率进行了评估和结构分析。分析结果表明,当前我国经济的杠杆率水平总体可控。当前的最大风险不是杠杆率的绝对水平,而是地方政府和非金融企业杠杆率较高的结构性风险,以及经济增速逐渐下行所可能引发的债务偿还风险。当前我国不宜实施过急的去杠杆行为,而应该用好、用活目前仍然存在的杠杆率空间,优化债务结构,在经济增长过程中逐步降低杠杆率水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the leverage ratio of China’s economy rises significantly and is under hot debate by researchers.According to historical experiences,some scholars reckon the ratio is too high for today’s economic developing level of China.This high leverage ratio will cause some latent economic risks.Through a deeply study of related researches both in domestic and abroad,this paper evaluates the leverage ratio and analyzes China’s debt structure.Our research shows that China’s overall economic leverage ratio is controllable.Currently,the high leverage risk does not exist in the economy as a whole,but exists in certain economic sectors.Those risks are mainly caused by over-indebtedness of local governments and non-financial corporations.When the economic growth rate slows down,high leveraged institutions will face repayment pressure and may cause debt risk.So,we think at present China should not deleverage hastily.There are still rooms to optimize the structure of debts.By maintaining the high level economic growth rate and a proactive debt restructuring,the debt leverage ratio will come down to a healthy level gradually.更多还原