【摘要】 基于背景误差分析中的观测法,利用Jason-1卫星高度计沿轨有效波高数据并结合Wave Watch Ⅲ海浪模式预报结果,进行北印度洋海域海浪背景误差分析,得到海浪场背景误差方差和各向同性假设下背景误差相关长度的时空分布特征。按经验函数拟合该海域有效波高背景误差协方差时总残差平方和最小的原则给出了更为适用于该海域的描述公式。在上述工作基础上,采用最优插值同化方法将Jason-1和Jason-2卫星高度计有效波高数据连续同化到海浪模式Wave Watch Ⅲ,按业务化标准对2013年1月北印度洋海域的海浪场进行了同化预报试验,经浮标数据检验发现同化可使海浪24 h预报得到明显改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the observational method, the background error analysis of waves is conducted in the North Indian Ocean area, using the data derived from Jason- 1 altimeter significant wave heights(SWH) and modeled SWH by Wave Watch III. Spatial and temporal characteristics of background errors and isotropic correlation length scales are obtained. A relatively more appropriate functional form for background error correlations is found by the lowest total residual sum of square. Based on the Optimal Interpolation(OI) data assimilation method, an experiment is executed for improving wave forecast using observed SWH data from Jason- 1 and Jason- 2 altimeter. Compared with buoy data, the results show there are significant improvements in short- term prediction by using OI methods.更多还原