【摘要】 利用1974 2012年天津12个气象站的降水、气温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,采用经验函数正交分解(EOF)和相关分析等统计方法,对天津春季的气候特征及主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明:1)天津春季降水空间分布主要有全市一致型和南北反位相型2种分布型,其总方差贡献接近90%,2013年春季为全市一致型。2)东亚冬季风、北极涛动(AO)和西太平洋副高是天津春季气候的主要影响因子。3)2013年,东亚冬季风偏强,AO冬、春持续负位相,春季西太平洋副高偏弱、偏东,均指示天津2013年春季降水偏少、气温偏低的可能性大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Precipitation and temperature data from 12 meteorological stations in Tianjin from 1974 to2012,as well as NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data,were used to analyze the climatic features and the main influencing factors during spring in Tianjin by statistical methodologies,such as Empirical Orthogonal Function( EOF) and correlation analysis. The results are as follows. 1) In-phase distribution and southnorth out-of-phase distribution of precipitation were dominant during spring in Tianjin,with about 90 percent of the total variance contribution. The precipitation anomalies in 2013 were even distributed throughout Tianjin. 2) Spring in Tianjin were mainly affected by the East Asian Winter Monsoon( EAWM),the Arctic Oscillation( AO),and the West Pacific Subtropical High( WPSH). 3) A high possibility of less precipitation and lower temperature was indicated by the stronger EAWM,the constant minus AO throughout winter and spring,and the weaker and more eastward WPSH in 2013.更多还原