【摘要】 本文利用1951-2012年哈尔滨的逐日平均气温资料,采用趋势系数、变化速率、MK突变分析、一元线性回归等方法,对哈尔滨采暖期的平均气温、天数、强度、耗能变化率等进行了详细的分析。得出:哈尔滨采暖期平均气温为-8.8℃,62 a的变化速率为0.12℃/10 a,在1983-1984年发生了突变;采暖期天数平均为181 d,变化速率为-3.7 d/10 a,通过了0.001显著性检验,且在1987-1988年发生了突变;采暖强度平均为4 878.5℃·d,采暖耗能变化率为-2.6%/10 a,通过了0.001显著性检验,且在1980s中期发生了突变。哈尔滨采暖期平均气温升高1℃,采暖强度将减少180℃·d,采暖耗能将减少3.9%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the daily mean temperature data of Harbin from 1951 to 2012 to analyze the average temperature, days, heating intensity and change of the heating energy consumption rate during the heating period. And trend coefficient, rate of change, MK mutation analysis, a linear regression method was adopted in this paper. It shows that, the average temperature of heating period is-8.8 ℃ in Harbin, the change rate was 0.12 ℃ / 10 a for the past 62 years and it mutated from 1983 to 1984. The average number of days for the heating period was 181 and the rate of change is-3.7 d/10 a, it passed the significance test of 0.001 and mutated from 1987 to 1988; The average of heating intensity is 4 878.5 ℃·d and the change of heating energy consumption rate is-2.6%/10 a, it passed the significance test of 0.001 and mutated in the 1980s;If the average temperature of heating period increased 1 ℃,the heating intensity would decrease 180 ℃·d and the heating energy consumption would decreas 3.9%.更多还原