【摘要】 根据我国1990年、2000年和2010年三次人口普查的数据,分析我国人口老龄化现状以及老龄化趋势和经济发展趋势之间的关系,并进一步采用空间自相关模型和新构的经济自相关模型,用全局Moran’s I指数刻画全局自相关,用局部Moran指数和局部G系数刻画局部自相关,分别探讨中国各区域老龄化的空间相关性和经济相关性,其结论表明,中国的人口老龄化存在正的空间相关性和经济相关性,并且老少比这一指标对经济水平的依赖性大于对空间位置的依赖性,即老龄化的地区差异中经济发展水平较空间位置的影响更甚。因此,应根据经济发展水平进行区分,因地制宜地制定老龄化的应对策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the three census data in 1990,2000 and 2010,this paper analyzes the current situa-tion of population aging in China and the relationship between the trends of aging and economic development.Appling the spatial autocorrelation model and innovative economic autocorrelation model,including global and local Moran indices,Getisord local G,this paper investigates the spatial correlation and economic relevance of the regional population aging. It shows that the spatial correlation and economic relevance are both significantly positive,and the aged-child ratio depends more on economic level than spatial location,which means economic development has greater influence on the regional differences of population aging than spatial location. Therefore,the government should make policies according to different economic level.更多还原