【摘要】 中国面临国际气候谈判和国内经济转型的双重减排压力,为此中国政府提出了明确的2020年量化减排目标。通过构建工业行业双目标模型,模拟分析我国在排放强度约束、水资源约束、就业约束、行业产值上下限约束以及非负约束等条件下实现既定减排目标的工业产值和就业人数最大值,结果证实产业结构低碳化是实现减排目标的有效途径;调整参数值的模拟则证实一定条件下产值增大有助于实现排放强度减少这一相对量减排目标。因此,我国在转变经济发展方式中应在保持工业增长的同时注重工业结构低碳化升级,而严格控制高排放行业增长率是未来时期经济低碳转型的突破点。更多还原

【Abstract】 China faces dual pressure of carbon emission reduction from international climate negotiations and domestic economy transformation,and Chinese government has announced the specific quantitative targets in 2020. This paper constructs an industrial model with double targets to analyze the results about industrial output and employment maximization with constraint conditions including emission intensity,water resource,employment,upper and lower bounds of output value and nonnegative constraint. The result confirms that industrial structure low-carbonization is an effective way to achieve the emission reduction target. The simulation results after adjusting the parameters confirm that output increase can help achieve emission reduction target of2020 under certain condition. Therefore,China needs to keep industrial growth and try industrial structure low-carbon optimization in the transformation period of economic development pattern,and strictly controlling the growth rate of highly polluting industries is the breakthrough point.更多还原