【摘要】 运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析的思想,结合协调发展理论提出了基于VAR和VEC模型的交通经济数据的分析方法,据此对河北省1990—2009年交通运输与经济统计数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:经济增长对交通运输业的引致需求作用不如交通运输业对经济增长推动作用明显,但是经济增长与交通运输业的建设规模、合理布局、运输能力具有长期均衡关系;经济增长速度受到冲击后会在中期对交通运输业具有正的影响,短期影响并不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, this paper puts forwards the economic data analysis method based on the model of VAR and VEC. Hence, the author carry out the empirical analysis on the transportation and economic statistical data of Hebei province in 1990-2009. The results show that the need effect of economic growth on the transport is less obvious than the transportation role in promoting economic growth. However, there is balance in long period existing in the area of construction scale, reasonable layout and transportation power of the economics development and transportation. In the medium term and after impacted, the growth rate of economy will have positive effect on the transportation, but not obviously in the short period.更多还原