【摘要】 基于冰雹云的雷达三维拼图反射率分布形态特征,提出在人工影响防雹作业中识别冰雹云的6个候选指标,分别是组合反射率、云回波顶高、最大反射率回波顶高、垂直累积液态水含量、垂直累积液态水含量密度以及垂直累积液态水含量跃增值。基于新一代天气雷达组网数据应用风暴跟踪(SCIT)算法实现风暴跟踪并计算部分指标,形成模糊逻辑判断方法,确定防雹作业区域。结果表明,应用该方法对北京、江西的多个降雹个例进行三维风暴单体的冰雹云识别试验,对比地面降雹观测数据,计算多个个例模拟命中率>77%,误报率<26%,空报率<22%。考虑组合反射率三维形态分布特征的模糊逻辑法可以较好地识别大部分可作业冰雹云,跟踪模拟效果较好,有利于在人工影响防雹作业中的有效应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 On basis of the distribution characteristics of reflectivity mosaic of China new generation weather radar( CINRAD),six indexes are suggested to identify hail cloud during hail suppression by artificial means,which include composite reflectivity( CR),echo top( ET),maximum reflectivity of ET( MET),vertical integrated liquid( VIL),density of VIL( VILD),and gradient of VIL( GVIL),respectively. Some indexes are calculated depending on storm cell identification and tracking( SCIT),form the fuzzy logical method to identify the suppression area. The results indicate that the method of three-dimensional hail recognition experiment are applied multiple hail fall alone in Beijing and Jiangxi. To contrast the hail observation data,calculation of the accuracy are greater than 77% the false ratio is below 26%,empty ratio below 22% through multiple example. Consider the portfolio reflectance characteristics of three-dimensional shape distribution of fuzzy logic method can well identify most workable hail cloud,tracking simulation effect is good,is conducive to effective application in figure hail proof operation. The hail clouds which need to be suppressed by artificial means can mostly be identified according to the characteristics of reflectivity mosaic and fuzzy logical method. The method has a better tracking effect and a promising application in hail suppression.更多还原