【摘要】 利用东亚地区1961~2005年高分辨率(0.5°×0.5°)降水格点数据和参加CMIP5的42个全球气候模式数值模拟结果,通过对简单降水强度指数(降水距平百分率)的计算,对比分析了观测和多模式集合的中国地区干旱面积、干旱频率的时空分布以及干旱分布型的变化,评估了全球气候模式的模拟能力。结果表明:多个全球气候模式的集合结果对中国区域的干旱变化特征有一定的模拟能力,能较好地模拟出中国年平均干旱指数的时间变化趋势,但模拟的干旱强度偏弱;多模式集合模拟的严重干旱面积与观测值的变化趋势基本一致,与观测相比,模拟的长江以南干旱强度偏强,西北干旱强度偏弱;通过EOF的分析表明,多模式集合可以较好地模拟出西北与长江以南呈反位相及我国东部地区的"旱—涝—旱"或"涝—旱—涝"的分布型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The observed and simulated precipitation anomaly percentages in China are calculated by using the 0.5° × 0.5° gridded precipitation data and simulation results from 42 global climate models of CMIP5,then the ability of global climate models of CMIP5 to simulate drought is assessed by analysis of changes of drought area,drought frequency and drought pattern distributions in China.The results show that the multi-model ensemble simulation results could reproduce the observed drought characteristics in China,and the moldels could well simulate the trends of annual averaged drought index and severe drought area.However,compared to observations,the trends of drought index was weaker,the drought frequency was stronger in the south of the Yangtze River and was weaker in the northwestern areas in simulations.Based on EOF analysis,the models could reproduce the anti-phase relationship between the northwest and the Yangtze River,as well as spatial patterns of drought-flood-drought or flood-drought-flood in eastern China.更多还原