【摘要】 在分析4个主要影响因素的基础上,基于换乘乘客到站时间符合正态分布,建立换乘乘客平均候车时间模型,由此确定的平均候车时间与Welding公式计算的结果有很大的差异。应用微分理论,绘出平均候车时间变化曲线,发现接运公交发车时刻是影响平均候车时间的关键因素,且存在最小平均候车时间的发车时刻;通过敏感性分析发现平均候车时间受换乘乘客到站时间均值影响很小,但随方差变化较大;平均候车时间增大倍数超过接运公交发车间隔的增大倍数的2倍;并随着接运公交运营可靠度的降低而急剧增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on analyzing the 4 key factors influencing the average waiting time,the model of transfer passengers’ average waiting time is established in accordance with the normal distribution of the transfer passengers’ arriving time. The average waiting time calculated by the above model has great difference with that calculated by the Welding equation. With the differential theory,the curve of average waiting time is drawn,which shows that the departure time of the feeder bus is the key factor affecting average waiting time,and there exists the minimal average waiting time. By sensitivity analysis,it is found that( 1) the average value of transfer passengers’ arriving time has little effect on the average waiting time but the variance of that has greater effect;( 2) the increasing times of the average waiting time is more than twice of the increasing times of the departure interval of feeder buses;( 3) the average waiting time sharply increases when the reliability of the feeder bus service turns into unreliability.更多还原