【摘要】 在全球价值链分工背景下,本文利用WIO数据库中1995-2011年的中国投入产出表,估算了中国制造业总体及其细分的14个行业向美国的出口增加值。结果表明:中国制造业的贸易利益体现在出口增加值逐年增加;剔除出口扩张数量效应,出口增加值率稳定在[40%,50%]区间内,短时期内很难快速提高;在出口增加值影响因素的Johansen协整检验和VEC计量模型中,长期内垂直专业化程度对增加值的影响高于其它变量,其余依次是制造业的劳动生产率和规模经济,而短期内变量的影响程度排序与长期恰好相反。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the background of the specialization in the global value chains, the paper estimates the value added in exports of China’s overall manufacturing industry and its 14 subdivision industries to the US by using the input-output table of China from 1995 to 2011 from the WIO database. The results show that the trade interests of China’s manufacturing exports are reflected in the growth of the value added in China’s exports to the US year by year. Excluding the export expansion effect, this paper points out that the growth rate of value added in China’s manufacturing export has been between 40% and 50%,and the rate can hardly be raised in the short term. This paper then examines the variables affecting China’s export trade interests, and finds that in the long run the effect of the degree of vertical specialization carries most weight among the influential variables, followed by the labor productivity and the economies of scale. In the short term, however, the influential degree of the variables is reversed.更多还原