【摘要】 通过水量平衡计算,分析表明入湖地表水量减少是20世纪90年代末以来红碱淖湖泊持续萎缩的主要原因,而导致入湖地表水量减少的主要因素包括经济社会用水增加、水库工程拦蓄、植被建设耗水量增加、地下水超采和地下水位下降等方面。结合流域内水库工程供水情况,考虑适当压减农田灌溉面积以压采现状地下水超采量,设置不同用水情景预测了未来湖泊面积:若流域内水库工程按照现状供水水平向河道外供水,考虑压采现状流域内地下水超采量781.3万m3,湖泊面积可维持在35.6km2,较2010年湖泊面积38.2km2缩小2.6km2;若流域内水库工程按照设计供水能力向流域外供水时,即使压采781.3万m3的地下水超采量,未来湖面面积仍将进一步缩减至22.0km2。更多还原

【Abstract】 By the analysis of water balance,we studied the main reasons of lake area change.Result showed that continuous shrinkage of the lake from the late 1990s was due to the reducing of surface water into the lake.The main factors led into the phenomenon contained that the increase of economic and social water use,the interception of reservoir projects,the increase of water consumption in vegetation constructions,the overexploitation of groundwater.We predicted the future lake area under different water use levels combining the reservoirs supply water conditions and considering appropriately reduce farmland irrigation area in order to reduce groundwater overexploitation: if the reserve projects in basin supply water to external basin under present level,considering reducing 781.3×104m3 overexploitation groundwater in basin,the lake area would maintain 35.6km2 that is less 2.6km2 than 2010.If under planned supply water capacity level,the lake area would reduce to 22.0km2.更多还原