【摘要】 本文运用空间计量方法,探讨中国31个省份本地与异地之间雾霾污染的交互影响问题以及经济变动、能源结构影响。全局空间相关性分析显示雾霾污染存在显著的空间正相关性;局域空间相关性分析显示污染的高聚集区分布在京津冀、长三角以及与这两大经济增长极相连接的中部地区,本文认为产业转移是其重要原因,产业转移加深了地区间经济与污染的空间联动性,污染的空间溢出效应进一步显现。建立空间环境库兹涅茨曲线回归模型,发现污染水平与能源结构以及产业结构变动息息相关。此外,雾霾污染与经济发展的倒"U"型关系并不存在或还未出现,即随人均GDP的持续增长,污染水平不断上升。综合实证分析得到,邻近地区的产业转移所换取的环境质量改善仅仅是短期的。由于污染溢出的存在,环境规制更严格的地区,如北京、天津等地不能获得其规制的全部利益。治理雾霾,区域间联防联控势在必行。长期看,改变能源消费结构以及优化产业结构是治理雾霾的关键,而短期看,减少劣质煤的使用是较为有效的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this article,according to spatial econometrics,we especially focus on studying the interaction between the haze pollution of the province and its neighborhoods’ pollution in China’s 31 provinces,as well as the impacts from energy structure and economy changes.First,there exists positive global spatial autocorrelation in China’s provinces.There also exists a "high-high" "polarization" phenomenon,which emerged in The Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,The Yangtze River Delta region and the middle region which connects the two areas.We account it for industry transfer,which further intensify the economy-pollution spatial linkage among China’s provinces.And on this account,the pollution spillover effect is more obvious.Second,the spatial environmental Kuznets Curve econometric model is set up to quantitatively analyze the pollution’s spillover effects and its influencing factors,which finds that the change of pollution’s level highly associates with energy structure and industrial structure.In addition,the inverse "U" relationship between haze pollution and economic development may not exist at all or not emerge.The level of pollution is rising continuously with the growth of GDP per capital.According to the empirical analysis,we can conclude that it is just short-term for improving haze pollution by transferring industry to neighborhoods to improve environmental quality.Because of the existence of pollution spillover,the strict environmental regulation’s region,for instance Beijing,Tianjin,cannot get all the benefits from their regulation.The most effective method is that neighborhoods coordinate their efforts to deal with haze pollution.In the long run,optimizing the energy consumption structure and the industrial structure will play a key role in controlling haze.And reducing the use of inferior coal can solve the problem in a short-term.更多还原