【摘要】 广州中心气象台利用中国气象局下发的欧洲中心台风集合预报数据,制作了台风集合预报产品,供业务参考应用。利用欧洲中心台风集合预报数据,对2013年1307—1331号热带气旋的集合预报路径和强度进行检验,通过对比集合平均、模式高分辨率确定性预报和预报员主观预报,发现路径集合平均在24~120 h预报误差最小;在有限的预报样本数中,从热带风暴到台风级别的热带气旋,各预报时效路径集合平均的误差随强度增强而减小;强引导气流背景下的热带气旋预报误差小于弱引导气流的误差。对比强度集合平均和模式高分辨率确定性预报,发现各时效集合平均的误差比确定性预报大,随着预报时效的延长误差没有明显增大或减小的趋势,而且强度集合平均预报,在中心最低气压、中心最大风速、热带气旋等级都表现出明显的系统性偏弱特征;对不同级别的热带气旋强度预报,集合平均的误差随强度增强而增大,即强度集合预报对强度较弱的热带气旋有更高的准确率;对比受强、弱引导气流影响的两类热带气旋,集合平均对受弱引导气流影响的一类预报误差更小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the data of ensemble forecasts of typhoons by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast disseminated by China Meteorological Administration,the Guangzhou Central Observatory has made a set of ensemble typhoon forecast products for operational guidance. The track and intensity of typhoons No. 1307- 1331 of 2013 in the ensemble forecasts were verified. By comparing the ensemble mean with deterministic forecasts with high-resolution models and subjective forecasts,this work showed that the mean ensemble track has the smallest error in the 24 ~ 120 h forecast,the error decreases with the increase of intensity in different valid durations of forecast for all samples of limited number of tropical cyclones( varying from tropical storms to typhoons),and the error is smaller with a strong steering airflow than with a weak one. For the intensity,comparisons of the ensemble mean with deterministic forecasts show that the error of the former approach is all larger than that of the latter and shows no trends of significant increase or decrease with the increase of valid forecast durations. Besides,the former shows significantly systematic weak features in the center minimum pressure,center maximum wind speed and intensity level of tropical cyclones. The error of ensemble mean increases with the intensity of the tropical cyclone regardless of how strong it is. In other words,the ensemble forecast of intensity has greater accuracy for weak tropical cyclones. Comparisons of tropical cyclones with strong and weak steering airflow indicate that the ensemble mean has smaller error in the forecast of tropical cyclones steered by weak steering airflows.更多还原