【摘要】 从微观能源技术层面与宏观经济系统相结合的角度,分析中国实现碳排放高峰的煤电技术组合的可能性及其相应社会经济影响。微观层面,选取目前最有发展前景和竞争力的四种洁净燃煤发电技术,即超(超)临界机组(SC/USC)、常压循环流化床燃烧(CFBC)、整体煤气化联合循环(IGCC),并设计不同的技术组合情景方案,模拟不同技术组合情景下中国可能出现的碳排放峰值和年份;宏观层面,将不同洁净煤技术发展的成本导入PIC模型,模拟洁净煤技术发展对经济增长、就业以及行业的影响,从而可以评价不同洁净煤技术发展的成本效益。研究结果表明,在基准技术情景下,由于各项洁净煤技术的发展力度相对较小,2050年前并不能实现中国碳排放峰值;而在强低碳技术情景下,即分别加大四种洁净煤技术的发展力度,除CFBC技术外,其它三种技术的发展都促使中国分别在2039年、2039年、2040年出现碳排放峰值,其中IGCC技术最具发展潜力。因此,中国完全可以依靠优化火力发电技术组合来推动碳排放峰值的到来。更多还原

【Abstract】 We analyze the clean coal technology choice and the corresponding cost,social and economic effect on Chinese possible carbon emissions peak from both the micro and the macroaspects.From the microaspect,four kinds of most promising and competitive clean coal power generation technology are chosen:the ultra(ultra)supercritical unit(SC/USC),circulating fluidized bed combustion(CFBC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC).Then we design different scenarios for technology choice,which shows the possible carbon peak emission and peak year in China.From the macroaspect,the technology choices are integrated in PIC model for the simulation of the effects of economic growth,employment and industry,which can also evaluate the cost benefit of different clean coal technology choices.Results show that(1)there is no carbon emission peak appears before 2050 in the basic technology scenarios,while in the strong low carbon technology scenarios,the other three techniques scenarios lead to carbon emissions peak in the 2039 and 2040except CFBC technology scenario;(2)among the four clean coal technologies,IGCC is the most promising clean coal technology because of its emission reduction potential and low cost.China can rely on the optimization choices of clean coal technology to realize carbon emission peak before 2050.更多还原