【摘要】 为科学地对建筑供应链的风险进行评估,采用故障树分析方法,对引起建筑供应链失效的各风险因素进行分析,建立了建筑供应链失效的故障树.在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,找出了建筑供应链失效的主要模式.采用信心指数法,将专家数据修正为三角模糊数,运用模糊集理论和故障树相结合,计算了底事件发生概率及各事件的模糊概率重要度.通过分析模糊概率重要度指标,得出了建筑供应链在实施前应首先规避的风险.结果表明:为建筑供应链的风险评估提供了可靠手段.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to assess scientifically the risk of construction supply chain,this paper analyzed the various risk factors that cause the failure of construction supply chain using the fault tree analysis.The fault tree of construction supply chain was established.On the base of the qualitative analysis,the control measure was proposed to reduce the risk of failure of the construction supply chain.The data of experts were modified to triangular fuzzy numbers using confidence index,then the probability of occurrence and fuzzy probability importance of each risk were calculated with combination of fuzzy and Fault Tree.Through the analysis of the fuzzy probability importance,the risk that should be avoided primarily before the construction can be obtained.The proposed method provides a scientific and reliable means for the risk assessment of construction supply chain.更多还原