【摘要】 随着调控的持续和深入,房地产市场出现了分化,政府、开发商、购房者之间展开了一场三角博弈,市场观望情绪上升,楼市前景扑朔迷离。在当前国内外经济金融形势仍复杂严峻的情况下,如果房地产市场出现较大波动,银行能否承受冲击?文章在房地产市场参与主体博弈行为的基础上,运用VAR方法和Copula函数,构建基于压力测试的商业银行住房抵押贷款信用风险分析框架,并通过实证分析,找出关键的风险监控信号,提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continued and deep-going regulation by government,there is a triangular game among government,developers and homebuyers in the real estate market. Wait-and-see mood rises,throwing the market prospect wide open. In the complicated and serious economic and financial situation home and abroad,can commercial banks sustain the impact if there is a great fluctuation in the real estate market? Based on the research on the game behavior of market participants,this paper aims to build up a framework to analyze the credit risks of housing mortgage loan of commercial banks on the basis of stress tests. Moreover,through positive analysis it tends to find out the key signal of risk monitoring and put forward the relevant policy suggestions.更多还原