【摘要】 提出了应用ARIMA乘积季节模型对大坝位移监测数据进行分析和预报的新方法,并给出了基于开源R语言建立乘积季节模型的方法步骤和关键技术。结合某大坝径向位移监测数据进行计算分析,结果表明:ARIMA乘积季节模型能较准确地预报大坝位移趋势,具有较高的预测精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 A new method of applying multiplicative seasonalARIMA model to the analysis and prediction of dam displace-ment monitoring has been proposed. The procedures and keytechnologies to build multiplicative seasonal ARIMA modelbased on open source programming R language has also beenput forward. Combined with the calculation and analysis of onespecific dam’s radical displacement monitoring data,the re-sults show that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model canpredict the displacement tendency with fair accuracy and havepreferable prediction precision.更多还原