【摘要】 文章基于线性回归和高阶多项式模型研究了格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化趋势,并利用多项式系数假设检验、R2调整、信息准则、交叉验证多种准则进行比较分析。对比多个周期线性拟合和非线性回归模型得到的趋势值,结果表明,二阶多项式模型得到的格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化趋势值最优,并且利用GRACE获取的冰盖质量变化趋势与研究周期和趋势模型具有很大的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this study,the mass variations trends over Greenland by means of linear regression and high-order polynomial regression model were investigated,and the comparative analysis was carried out by various model selection criteria including polynomial hypotheses testing,R-squared adjusted,information criterion and cross-validation.Trough contrasting the trends by linear fitting taken over different analysis periods and non-linear regression model,it showed that the mass variations trends over Greenland by the second order polynomial were best represented,moreover,both the period of investigation and the adopted trend model had a strong impact on the quantification of mass variation trends from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE).更多还原