【摘要】 中国农村居民消费在国民经济中具有举足轻重的地位,对其偏好的认识不仅有利于理解宏观刺激政策的效果,也有助于计算一些关于中国经济的基本模型。通过对1980-2011年中国农村居民人均消费数据采用协整模型估计发现:(1)衣着类、居住类、医疗保健类和文教娱乐类商品和服务相对于食品类商品和服务的期内替代弹性分别为0.279、0.403、0.362和0.235,且与食品呈互补关系;(2)在中国农村市场上居住类商品和服务遭受着最大的正向供给冲击;(3)医疗保健类和文教娱乐类商品和服务与食品体现着类似的习惯形成效应;(4)随着收入增加农村居民更加倾向于将支出分配给食品类和居住类商品和服务,而对文化教育则显得不够重视;(5)曲率参数估计结果较大,这主要是中国经济持续高速增长及低利率政策双重因素的共同结果。上述发现的政策含义有三点:其一,提高农民生活质量的短期重点在于食品和居住两类商品和服务;其二,改善农民生活水平的中期关键在于增加农民可支配收入;其三,解决"三农"问题的长期核心在于改善农村教育。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the consumption of rural Chinese residents plays a vital role in the national economy,cognition of it helps to agreat extent both in comprehending the effects of stimulating macroeconomic policies and computing some basic models about Chinese economy.Based on per capita consumption data of the Chinese rural residents from 1980 to 2011,this paper has the following findings.(1iThe IES between clothing,house holding,health care and education and entertainment goods and service and food are 0.279,0.403,0.362 and 0.235 respectively,all of which present a complimentary relationship with food.(ii)House holding goods and service suffers the biggest positive supply shocks on rural Chinese market.(iii)Health care,education and entertainment consumptions present similar habit formatting effects with food consumption.(iv)With the increasing disposable income,the rural residents tend to allocate more money to food and house holding consumption,while least to education and entertainment.(v)The curvature parameters seem relatively big,and this can be mainly attributed to the high economic growth ratio and low interest rate policy.These findings suggest three policies:first,the focus of improving life quality of the peasant in the short run is the consumption of food and house holding goods and service;second,the medium-term key of improving famers’living standard is to increase their disposable income;last but not the least,the ultimate solution to the"three agriculture issues"is ameliorate rural education supply.更多还原