【摘要】 运用WRFV3.3模式通过设定模拟区域、两重嵌套网格以及针对各种物理过程选用参数化方案等,对青海东部地区2007年8月26～27日发生过的一次大暴雨天气过程进行数值模拟研究,并与实测资料进行对比分析,对WRFV3.3模式在青海地区的模拟效果进行评估。结果表明,从降水量的模拟结果来看,模式对于微物理过程和积云参数化方案敏感,对陆面过程、长波辐射、短波辐射、近地面层和边界层方案不敏感;对2007年8月26日青海东部地区暴雨过程的模拟结果进行评估,西宁、化隆、尖扎、清水河、黄南各站的12 h降水量平均误差分别为-86.5、-75.5、-71.0、-14.0、-100.5 mm;降水落区面积偏大;积分时间为0～12、12～24、24～36、36～48 h的模拟值和观测值相关系数分别为0.66、0.57、0.60、0.51,平均相关系数0.58。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using WRFV3. 3 to set area with 2 nested grids and choosing all kinds of parameterized methods,a rainstorm during Aug 26- 27,2007 in eastern Qinghai was simulated and analyzed with observed data and the effect of WRFV3. 3 used in Qinghai was estimated. The results show that WRFV3. 3 was sensitive with microphysics process and cumulus parameterization but not sensitive with land surface process,longwave radiation,shortwave radiation,ground layer and boundary layer parameterization based on precipitation. The average errors of 12 hours precipitation in Xining,Hualong,Jianzha,Qingshuihe and Huangnan were- 86. 5,- 75. 5,- 71. 0,- 14. 0,- 100. 5 mm. The precipitation area was vaster. The correlation coefficients of 0- 12,12- 24,24- 36,36- 48 are 0. 66,0. 57,0. 60,0. 51 and average correlation coefficient was 0. 58.更多还原