【摘要】 根据天祝县乌鞘岭气象站1951~2010年的气温、降水资料,分析天祝县气温、降水的年际变化、季节变化,并对其进行异常性分析。研究表明,近60年天祝县年平均气温呈上升趋势,增温速率达0.17℃/10a;四季气温、年最高和最低气温均呈上升趋势,且冬季平均气温、年平均最低气温的增温对天祝县气候变暖起了关键作用;年平均降水量呈减少趋势,变化率为-1.4%/10a;四季中春、夏、冬3季降水呈减少趋势,秋季降水呈增加趋势;进入90年代后,秋、冬季降水均明显持续增加,而夏季降水的持续减少对年降水量减少贡献最大。综合各要素的突变特征和对气温与降水的异常分析,天祝气候向暖干化发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to temperature,precipitation data in Wassailing meteorological station from 1951 to 2010 in Tianzhu County,the annual and seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation was analyzed,as well as the abnormality. The results showed that the annual average temperature rise,increasing temperature reached 0. 17 ℃/10a. The four season’s temperature,maximum and minimum temperature showed an upward trend,and the winter average temperature,annual mean minimum temperature warming plays a key role in climate warming in Tianzhu County. And the annual average precipitation decreased with the change rate of-1. 4%/10a. The precipitation in spring,summer and winter showed a decreasing trend,precipitation in autumn showed an increasing trend. After entering 90 age,autumn,winter precipitation were significantly increased,and the summer precipitation continued to reduce made the greatest contribution to the annual precipitation reducing. The mutation characteristics of comprehensive factors and abnormal analysis of air temperature and precipitation indicates that Tianzhu climate warming considers revising.更多还原