【摘要】 利用新疆101个气象站1961-2010年逐日气温资料,以日最低气温≤0℃为霜冻指标,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法对年平均气温和初、终霜冻日、无霜冻期的时空变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:新疆初、终霜冻日和无霜冻期的空间分布与年平均气温具有较密切的对应关系,年平均气温较高的区域,终(初)霜冻日出现较早(迟),无霜冻期也较长,反之,年平均气温较低的区域,终(初)霜冻日出现较迟(早),无霜冻期较短。在全球变暖背景下,1961-2010年新疆年平均气温以0.33℃/10a的倾向率上升,受其影响,终霜冻日和初霜冻日分别以-1.41d/10a和2.21d/10a的倾向率提早和推迟,无霜冻期以3.59d/10a的倾向率延长,并且上述各要素还分别于1997年和1995年发生了突变。但各要素变化倾向率或突变前后变化量具有明显的区域性差异,总体来说,年平均气温上升倾向率或上升幅度较大的区域,终霜冻日提前、初霜冻日推迟、无霜冻期延长的倾向率或幅度也较大,反之,年平均气温上升倾向率或上升幅度较小的区域,终霜冻日提前、初霜冻日推迟、无霜冻期延长的倾向率或幅度也较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on daily temperature data from 1961 to 2010 from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang,the spatial-temporal change characteristic of annual mean temperature,first and late frost dates,and frost-free period were analyzed using linear regression,accumulative anomaly,T-tests and mixed spatial interpolation methods.We found that the spatial distribution of first and late frost dates and frost-free periods closely corresponded to annual mean temperature.For example,when the annual mean temperature is higher,the late frost date is earlier,first frost date is later and frost-free period is longer.Under a context of global warming,annual mean temperature rose 0.33° C/10 a and the late frost date advanced by-1.41 d/10 a,the first frost date was delayed by 2.21 d/10 a,and the frost-free period increased by 3.59 d/10 a.These changes experienced significant mutation in 1997 or 1995 whereby the rate of change before and after these dates was different in different areas.Generally,the advance rate or range of late frost dates,the delayed rate or range of first frost dates,and the increasing rate or range of frost-free periods were greater in areas that underwent a greater increase in annual mean temperature.更多还原