【摘要】 目的构建中国台湾35~74岁健检人群高尿酸血症5年发病风险预测模型。方法选择随访刚满5年且基线无高尿酸血症的健康体检人员21 190人,分为建模队列和验证队列,采用多因素逐步回归logistic分析构建模型,以ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评价拟合优度。结果研究人群5年高尿酸血症发病率为12.64%。纳入预测模型变量有性别、舒张压、血尿酸、总胆固醇、LDL-C、甘油三酯、教育,其OR值(95%CI)分别为0.397(0.334~0.472)、1.021(1.015~1.027)、1.018(1.016~1.020)、0.763(0.651~0.894)、1.416(1.261~1.591)、1.304(1.194~1.424)和0.877(0.830~0.927)。预测模型ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.766(95%CI,0.753~0.779),验证队列为0.764(0.752~0.776)。结论由研究数据库建立的高尿酸血症风险预测模型有较高验证效度,对于该健康体检人群高尿酸血症预测具有实用、可行的特点,对评估发病风险有一定应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To develop aprediction model to assess the risk of hyperuricemia within a 5year followup among adults aged 35-74years in Taiwan.Methods A cohort of 21190adults who had no hyperuricemia on baseline and had finished a 5year follow-up were selected into the study.They were divided into two cohorts:modeling and validating cohorts.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the model and ROC curve′s AUC was used to test the goodness-of-fit.Results The incidence of hyperuricemia within a 5-year follow up was 12.64%.Variables adopted in the prediction model were gender,diastolic pressure,blood uric acid,total cholesterol,LDL-c,triglyceride and education with the OR(95%CI)of 0.397(0.334-0.472),1.021(1.015-1.027),1.018(1.016-1.020),0.763(0.651,0.894),1.416(1.26-1.591),1.304(1.194-1.424)and 0.877(0.830-0.927).The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.766(95%CI,0.753-0.779)in modeling cohort and was 0.764(95%CI,0.752-0.776)in validating cohort.Conclusions The prediction model for forecasting the risk of hyperuricemia established in the study is able to effectively predict hyperuricemia among healthy adults.更多还原