【摘要】 利用1996~2008年的统计资料,研究了近12年来福建省耕地变化过程与人口增长、经济发展之间的动态变化关系,建立了耕地面积与人口数量、GDP、社会固定资产投资间的线性模型。结果表明:1996年以来,福建省耕地面积经历了急剧减少-缓慢减少-急剧减少-缓慢减少的变化过程;近12年来福建省耕地面积变化的主要驱动力是人口增长、经济发展、社会固定资产投资的增加,与3个影响因素之间存在具有显著的负相关性;国家政策引导和宏观调控对耕地面积变化有很大的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the statistical data from 1996 to 2008,this paper,using the statistical analysis method,discussed the dynamic change relationships between the cultivated land and the growth of population,GDP,and social fixed assets investment in Fujian province. Three correlation models were formulated,i. e.,the linear models between cultivated land and population,and GDP,and social fixed assets investment. The results showed that cultivated land area had experienced a process of rapid reduction-slow reduction-rapid reduction- slow reduction in Fujian province. The main driving forces changing cultivated land area were population growth,economic development and social fixed assets investment increase. Cultivated land area had significantly negative correlations with population,GDP and social fixed assets investment. Additionally,the conduction and macro control of national policy had a great influence on cultivated land area change.更多还原