【摘要】 本文采用自下而上的经济学模型预测我国未来的车用燃料和原油需求。结果表明,如果乘用车年均行驶里程保持在目前水平(16000km),2020年我国原油需求量将达到10.5亿t,柴油过剩1亿t。通过调整各炼厂的生产柴汽比,并在需求侧推动乘用车柴油化,2020年的车用燃料供需能够达到平衡,并且减少原油进口2.1亿t。如果乘用车年均行驶里程下降到西欧国家的水平(12000km),2020年的原油需求量可以控制在8亿t,柴油过剩量1330万t。在这种情景下,乘用车柴油化仅能减少5%的原油进口。乘用车柴油化是否是一个明智的政策选择,取决于决策者对各种相关因素长期趋势的判断。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper develops an econometric model to estimate the vehicle fuels and crude oil demands. The results indicate that if the average travel distance of cars is maintained at the level of 2010 16000 km/yr, and if the distillation products mix of the refineries remains unchanged, China’s crude oil demand in 2020 will reach 1050 million tonnes (Mt), which also results in an excess supply of 100 Mt of diesel. A new balance of diesel supply and demand can be reached and crude oil demand can be significantly reduced to 840 Mt by improving the production ratio between diesel and gasoline on the supply side and promoting passenger vehicle dieselization on the demand side. The crude oil demand will be reduced to 800 Mt in 2020,and the excess amount of diesel is 13.30 Mt, if the passenger vehicles’ annual travel distance gradually drops to 12000 km/yr. If so, dieselization will provide a rather limited added value only 5% further oil saving by 2020. Dieselization is not a silver bullet but depends on decision makers judgment of a series of key factors.更多还原