【摘要】 危险性评价与预测是滑坡灾害预防与减灾工作首要解决的重要内容。以西藏隆子县研究区内发育的滑坡为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取滑坡发育高程、坡度等13项影响因素作为滑坡危险性评价的指标,并建立分级标准将滑坡危险性划分为高度、中度和低度三级。采用组合赋权-未确知测度理论耦合评价模型,构建了评价指标未确知测度函数、评价指标组合赋权值、置信度判别准则,对研究区内20个滑坡进行了危险性评价,获得了每个滑坡危险性等级,并与模糊物元和突变理论评价结果及实测结果对比,评价结果基本符合实际情况,证明该方法科学合理,可为滑坡危险性预测提供新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Landslide susceptibility assessment and prediction are the important contents of the first solution for the decision-making of prevention and mitigation of disaster.Starting from the geological environmental conditions within Longzi county in Tibet,the 13 influencing factors are selected,including elevation,slope and so on.According to landslide risk classification standards established,landslide risk rating is divided into high,moderate and low.Based on combination weighting-unascertained measure theory coupled evaluation model,20 landslides? risks in study area are assessed and analyzed by unascertained measure function,combination weighting and confidence criterion.Each landslide risk is obtained.Compared with evaluation results of fuzzy matter-element and catastrophe theory,the evaluation results are consistent with actual situation and reasonable.Therefore,the model can provide a new idea for landslide risk prediction.更多还原