【摘要】 如何评判一个投标人的报价是否低于其成本是合理低价评标的关键因素之一.论文首先运用博弈理论思想分析了二级密封拍卖招标模式投标人的最优竞标策略是按其成本报价.然后针对投标人在二级密封拍卖招标模式下的最优竞标策略是按其真实成本报价这一特点,利用假设检验理论结合竞标人报价数的样本容量,建立了基于竞标人报价样本容量的工程成本概率判断模型.在α置信水平下,竞标人报价是落在拒绝域还是接受域以判断投标人的投标报价是否低于其成本.该模型既解决了如何判断施工企业投标报价是否低于成本的难题,又丰富和充实了工程评标理论.更多还原

【Abstract】 One of the key factors to assess reasonable low bid is that how to judge whether a tender’s offer is lower than its cost or not.In this paper,firstly,to analyze the optimal bidding strategy of bidder and find that the most optimal strategy is making bidding price equal to its cost by using the game theory.Then to build the probability judgment model of project cost based on bidder sample size by using hypothesis testing theory and bidder sample number under the second-price-sealed auction bidding.So at confidence level,whether one bidder is lower than its cost or not can be judged according to its position in accept region or rejection region.This model not only is used to solve problem that whether an offer is lower its cost,but also enriches bidding evaluation theory.更多还原