【摘要】 对于动态环境中需求预测精度随时间而变化的供应链,压缩提前期虽然可以提高预测精度,但同时可能带来赶工成本。研究了提前期压缩对供应链决策的影响,以及在此影响下供应链的协调问题。在无赶工成本的假设下,通过比较提前期不压缩和提前期压缩两种情况下供应链各方的利润,讨论了提前期压缩对供应链的影响;在存在赶工成本的情况下,求解了分散系统和集中系统的最优决策。通过数学推理证明,对于这两种成本结构的预测精度时变供应链,限制性回购契约均能实现渠道的完美协调。进一步还给出了协调契约具有Pareto优势必须满足的参数条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 In dynamic environment,for the supply chain with time-varying demand forecast accuracy,although the lead-time compression may raise forecast accuracy,it may reduce the cost.We study the influence of lead-time compression on supply chain decision and supply chain coordination taking into consideration of this influence.Assuming no crashing cost,the influence of lead-time compression on the supply chain is examined by comparing the profits of all parties with no lead-time compression with those with lead-time compression.Then,the optimal decisions of each party in both decentralized and centralized systems are obtained when crash costs are considered.Mathematical analysis shows that the constrained buy back contract can realize the perfect coordination of supply chain with time-varying forecast accuracy under two kinds of cost structures.Finally,the parametric conditions that the coordination contract has Pareto dominance are presented.更多还原