【摘要】 目的建立南昌市其他感染性腹泻的ARIMA模型,探讨ARIMA模型对南昌市其他感染性腹泻发病数预测的可行性。方法利用Eviews软件对南昌市2007年1月～2011年6月其他感染性腹泻的发病数资料建立ARIMA模型,并对预测结果进行评价。结果建立ARIMA(4,2,2)×(0,1,1)12模型,预测结果MAPE为15.56。结论建立的ARIMA模型较好的反应了其他感染性腹泻的流行趋势,对其他感染性腹泻的防制有一定的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 OBJECTIVE To discuss the feasibility of ARIMA in the people caused by the other infectious diarrhea. METH- ODS Used Eviews software to establish MRIMA model of data about other infectious diarrhea from Jan 2007 to Jun 2011 in Nanchang, then evaluated forecast results. RESULTS ARIMA (4, 2, 2) × (0, 1, 1) 12 was established and the predictive result of MAPE was 15.56. CONCLUSION The model indicates that the prevalence trend of other infectious diarrhea is better, and it is useful for controlling the incidence of other infectious diarrhea.更多还原