【摘要】 目的探讨灰色预测在新建医院开放床位数预测中的应用。方法以东莞市2004—2010年人口数据为依据建立人口灰色预测模型,对2013—2015年当地常驻人口进行预测。根据当地医疗卫生基本数据测算当地开放床位需求及缺口,对新建医院开放床位进行预测。结果模型预测当地人口2015年达到103.65万人。2015年塘厦新医院的首期开放病床需要达到800张。各类开放病床需呈合理分布。结论数学建模用于新医院开放床位的预测简便、实用,有助于卫生资源规划和配置,值得进一步研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the application of gray prediction model in predicting the Opening Beds in a new hospital. Methods To forecast the local resident population from 2013 to 2015 with mathematical statistics modeling by gray prediction model according to the data of household population and transient population in Dongguan from 2004 to 2011. And to estimates the local needs and gaps Open Beds according to the local health care basic data. Results To use the model,the local resident population in 2015 is 1.0365 million persons. The the Opening Beds in Tangxia new hospital needs 800 beds in 2015. The mountain of all kinds of Opening Beds needs rational distribution. Conclusion The way to forecast the Opening Beds in a new hospital by Mathematical modeling is useful and needs to research in further.更多还原