【摘要】 在非常规突发事件应急管理过程中,实时把握事件危害性的变化状况和演化态势无疑有助于事件的决策与处置.本文提出了一种可计算的事件态势监测模型ESMM.该模型依据事件爆发和处置/恢复过程中的实时情景,抽取与事件危害性相关的信息,通过实时评估事件处置前后的危害性变化,以及与决策目标间的差异判断事件的演化态势.实验表明ESMM是实时评估事件危害性变化和态势监测的可操作性模型.更多还原

【Abstract】 In the process of responding to the unconventional emergency,to monitor the real-time harmfulness of the event and its evolution can undoubtedly enhance government’s capacity of decision-making and management.Due to this notion,a situation evolution monitoring model ESMM which can be calculated is put forward in the paper.Based on the real-time scenario of the outbreaking,managing and recovering of the event,ESMM extracts the information related to harmfulness and makes a real-time assessment of the harmfulness change before and after the treatment,thus estimating the trend evolution in terms of the difference between the decision-making goals and the actuality.The experimental results obtained in the paper shows that ESMM is an operational model to evaluate the harmfulness and its evolution of the event.更多还原