【摘要】 运用改进的股利贴现股票内在价值计算模型以及对应的股市泡沫度计算公式,对我国20年来A股滚动投资1年到15年和12个月到180个月的股市泡沫度进行了计算,结果发现:短期内股票价格围绕价值线上下波动,股市泡沫度随着滚动投资年限的增加而变小;我国早期较高的股市泡沫度随着时间的推移而逐步得以化解;滚动投资期限越长,其股市泡沫度的运行轨迹就越处在内在价值线的下方,运行曲线越平稳;从长期看,企业的质量对股市泡沫的大小起决定性作用,对于业绩稳定且具有成长性的上市公司而言,股市泡沫会随着时间的推移而降低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the developed discounted dividend share intrinsic value model and the derived formula of levels of stock market bubbles,this paper calculates the rolling investment bubble levels of the A stock market of China over 1-15 years and 12-180 months and finds the following results: the A share prices fluctuate along the value line in short-term periods,the longer rolling investment periods,the smaller bubble levels of A share market of China;the higher levels of bubbles of A stock market of China in the early years and months diminish with the rolling investment periods becoming longer and longer;the curves of bubbles levels of A stock market of China become lower and steady under the intrinsic value o line with the rolling investment periods becoming longer;speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise,the bubble levels will come down with the time passing by on a steady stream of enterprise.This paper has important implications for the government and guiding the investment of investors.更多还原