【摘要】 本文首先基于文献[1]中附件1提供的数据建立logistic模型,对山东省职工未来25年的平均工资进行了预测;接着结合附件2和附件3,利用替代率公式分别计算出职工从30岁或40岁开始缴养老保险,一直缴费到退休(55岁/60岁/65岁)这六种情况的替代率;最后建立养老基金剩余额模型,得出养老金出现缺口的年份和缺口资金。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,first,we establish logistic model to forecast the average wage of enterprise workers in Shandong province in the following next twenty-five years.Second,we get replacement rate by replacement formula in six situations.At last,pension remaining amount model is established,and we get gap years and funding gap of pension.更多还原