【摘要】 本文采用2002²012年季度数据考察3个备选的金融宏观中介目标——社会融资规模、人民币贷款和广义货币M₂。图形直观分析、脉冲响应分析以及协整关系分析均表明:M₂不是一个理想的中介目标;社会融资规模在3个中介目标中表现最好,建议我国以社会融资规模作为金融宏观调控的中介目标;金融宏观调控政策对实体经济和物价指数的影响时滞分别为5个季度和2³年。政策时滞对制定前瞻性政策具有一定指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper analyzes three optional financial intermediate targets-aggregate financing of the economy,RMB banking loan,and broad money M₂,using data from 2002 to June 2012.Three approaches of graph analysis,impulse responses,and co-integretion analysis give rise to the same conclusions.M₂ is not a good intermediate target.Aggregate financing of the economy is the best one according to its relationship with both the real economy and the price index in the short and long run.We suggest adopting aggregate financing of the economy as the financial intermediate target in China.The lags of intermediate targets to the real economy and the price index are respectively 5 seasons,and 2 to 3 years.The concrete policy lags could be instructive to making forward-looking policies.更多还原