【摘要】 采用随机波动的时变参数结构向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-SVAR）,分别考察M₁、M₂、银行间7天同业拆借利率、贷款、社会融资规模与消费者价格指数、宏观经济景气一致指数之间的关系。发现货币政策传导效应具有非常显著的时变特征,没有一个变量适合在所有时期作为货币政策中间目标;就价格水平而言,从2009年起,M₁是一个最优的货币政策中间目标;而就宏观经济而言,从2010年起,社会融资规模是一个最优的货币政策中间目标。货币政策调控时不能仅仅参考某一个变量作为中间目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 We employ a SV-TVP-SVAR model to examine the relationships between M₁,M₂,Shibor-1w,loan,all-system financing aggregate and CPI,macroeconomic coincident index respectively.We argue that monetary policy transmission has great time-varying effects and none of the variables mentioned above is a good intermediate target for all the time.M₁ is an optimal target from 2009 in terms of price level and all-system financing aggregate is an optimal one from 2010 in terms of macro-economy.The People’s Bank of China maybe takes multi-intermediate targets.更多还原