【摘要】 为提高船舶进出港口的安全和效率,针对船舶进出口航道双通道航道有一条通道局部关闭,船舶需要变道绕行另一通道的情况,提出基于船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)的NaSch船舶交通流模型,建立一种航道局部缩减的元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)船舶交通流模型.结合船舶实际交通情况给出计算机数值仿真的船舶交通流时空斑图以及发生意外时的事故-恢复空斑图.针对一个算例,运用模型分析影响通道通行能力的警戒区长度设置、船舶到达率等交通要素.结果表明,该模型可以应用于决策模拟以提高航道通行能力、减少船舶滞留.更多还原

【Abstract】 To improve safety and efficiency of ship inbound /outbound harbor,under the condition that there exists one of two inbound / outbound lanes that is closed partially so that ships have to change lanes,a new NaSch ship traffic flow model based on Automatic Identification System(AIS) is proposed,and a cellular automaton ship traffic flow model for partial reduction lane is also built.By numerical simulation combined with actual traffic data,spatio-temporal patterns of ship traffic flow and those when an accident happens and recovers are given.At last,a numerical example is used to analyze the effect of precautionary area length and ship arrival rate on waterway transit capacity.The results show that the model can be applied to decision simulation to increase waterway transit capacity and alleviate stay of ships.更多还原