【摘要】 山洪泥石流预报是山洪灾害防御中的一项重要措施。为提供一种有效的预报途径,采用距离判别分析法构建了山洪泥石流预报的距离判别分析模型,选用前期实效雨量和当日雨量为判别因子,以实测山洪泥石流资料为学习样本进行训练,建立相应的判别函数对山洪泥石流进行预报。实例结果表明,该模型预测精度高、误报率低,行之有效。更多还原

【Abstract】 The flush flood and debris flow forecasting is an important measure for defense of flush flood disaster.In order to provide an effective way,this paper presents a model of distance discriminant analysis for prediction of flush flood and debris flow by using the principle of distance discriminant analysis method.The corresponding discriminant function for forecasting flush flood and debris flow is obtained through training measured data of flush flood and debris flow by selecting prophase actual effect rainfall and intraday rainfall.The research results show that the proposed model perform with high prediction accuracy and low false forecasting rate,and it is an effective method.更多还原