【摘要】 在RS和GIS技术的支持下,应用1995和2000年二期TM影像以及2006年CBERS-01影像,得到贵阳市三期土地利用/覆盖数据。在此基础上,利用Markov模型对贵阳市土地利用/覆盖变化进行模拟和预测。结果表明:未来15年建设用地面积将一直增加,由2005年的18 458.536 6 hm2增加至2020年的26 467.820 8 hm2,增加了43.39%;林地和水域面积将一直减少,分别由2005年的72 084.102 2、1 991.010 9 hm2减少至65 241.622 7、1 722.477 6 hm2,减少9.49%、13.49%;耕地和草地均为先增后减,耕地由2005年的131 644.716 1 hm2增加至2010年的132 094.802 3 hm2,再逐渐减少到2020年的131 442 264 3 hm2。耕地与林地间相互转移较为频繁,1995~2000年间,有14.44%的耕地流向了林地,35.17%的林地流向了耕地;新增建设用地主要来源为耕地,其转入率为85.49%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on RS & GIS,the urban land use data of Guiyang were obtained from TM image( 1995 and2000) and CBERS-01( 2006). The land use and cover change of Guiyang was simulated and predicted by means of Markov model. The results showed that: In future 15 years,construction land would increase continually from 18 458. 536 6 hm2in 2005 to 26 467. 820 8 hm2in 2020,whose increasing rate was 43. 39%. Forest land and water area would decreased continually,from 72 084. 102 2 hm2and 1 991. 010 9 hm2,respectively in 2005,and decreased to 65 241. 622 7 hm2and 1 722. 477 6 hm2,respectively in 2020,whose reduction rate were 9. 49% and 13. 49%,respectively. Cultivated land and grass land firstly increase to132 094. 802 3 hm2in 2010 from 131 644. 716 1 hm2in 2005,followed by a decrease to 131 442. 264 3 hm2in 2020. The cultivated land and forest land transfered frequently,and there was 14. 44% of cultivated land area was changed into forest land,35. 17% of forest land area was transferred to cultivated land from 1995 to2000. The new increment of construction land with transfer rate 85. 49%.更多还原