【摘要】 基于2005—2012年北京市对外交通运输各运输方式的客、货运周转量及对应能源消耗量的统计数据,利用LMDI方法建立了能耗变化模型。根据ASIF分类方法,选择影响能耗变化的3个主要因素:交通活动水平、交通方式结构和能源强度,定量地计算各因素对能耗变化的影响力和贡献率。研究发现,能源强度抑制能耗的增加,其他2个因素均促进能耗的增加。为了减缓能源消耗的增长速度,需要依托能源技术进一步降低能源强度,并将客货运量向运量大、能耗低的铁路吸引。更多还原

【Abstract】 We establish an energy consumption variation model with Logarithmic Mean Division Index( LMDI) based on the statistics of passenger and freight turnover and energy consumptioin of Beijing every external transport means from 2005 to 2012. We choose transport activity, transport structure and energy intensity which affect transport energy consumption and calculate their influence and contribution rate based on ASIF classification method. Results show that energy intensity inhibits the increase of energy consumption and the other two factors promote its increase. We should rely on energy technologies to decrease energy intensity and attract passengers and freight to railway transport with larger transport capacity and lower energy consumption to reduce the growth rate of energy consumption.更多还原