【摘要】 文章将概率分析的概念引入到工程项目估价中,以降低单个项目费用的偏差或误差对整个项目估价精确性的影响,减少项目风险。通过研究工程项目估价的原理及程序,探讨了单个随机变量的估值变化范围,分析了影响项目总费用众多随机因素概率分布的特征,确定了项目估价概率分析计算程序。研究结果发现工程项目估价的平均值近似服从正态分布,可以通过中心极限定理来描述其概率分布规律。再结合算例,证明了估价方法在估价项目数量较大(>15)时才为有效。更多还原

【Abstract】 Evaluation of the project is composed of accumulated costs of numbers of program activities.Due to the limitation of the project information amount,each program activity valuation will have bias or errors,which could be treated as value of random variables.This article discussed the value of a single random variable range through the analysis of project evaluation deviation and error distribution of probability density function.According to the analysis of a large quantity of random factors which affect the total project cost of probability distribution,we get the conclusion that the average value of project appraisal could be considered corresponding to the normal distribution approximately.Therefore the probability distribution could be described by central limit theorem,and then according to which the calculation procedures of project evaluation probability will be figured out.Finally the validity of conclusions will be proved by numerical examples.更多还原