【摘要】 从灾害应对的需求出发,将减灾应对措施纳入脆弱性指标体系,提出基于弹性脆弱指标的气象灾害风险辨识的概念模型,并对深圳世界大学生运动会(简称深圳大运会)开幕式做了个例研究。分析中用到了将虹吸雨量计自记纸记录数字化后得到的40年逐分钟雨量等详尽的高时空分辨率的气象资料。风险辨识结果表明:深圳大运会原定于2011年8月12日19:00—23:00举行开幕式的适宜概率31.4%、基本适宜概率47.2%、不适宜概率22.4%;如果开幕式时遇到暴雨、雷电等恶劣天气将开幕式时间向后顺延1小时,则适宜概率40.7%、基本适宜概率38.8%、不适宜概率20.5%;如果开幕式时遇到台风或持续暴雨严重影响,将开幕式时间向后顺延1天,则适宜概率58.5%、基本适宜概率35.0%、不适宜概率6.5%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Starting from an analysis of requirements for hazard management,this paper includes disaster reduction measures in a vulnerability index system,proposes a conceptual model of risk identification of meteorological hazards based on a resilience vulnerability index and analyzes as case study the opening ceremony of Shenzhen Universiade.The analysis adopts meteorological data of high temporal-spatial resolution,like 40-year rainfall by the minute,obtained through digitized self-recording records of siphon rainfall recorders.Risk identification shows that the eligibility rate,basic eligibility rate and ineligibility rate for the opening ceremony from 19:00 to 23:00 on 12 August 2011 are 31.4%,47.2% and 22.4%,respectively;if it is postponed for one hour because of bad weather like rainstorm and lightening,these rates are 40.7%,38.8% and 20.5%,respectively;if it is postponed for one day because of typhoons or sustained rainstorms,these rates are 58.5,35.0 and 6.5%,respectively.更多还原