【摘要】 为第14届世界田径锦标赛我国军团有针对性的进行训练及排兵布阵提供参考,以全部第1-13届世界田径锦标赛男子速度类项目前三名成绩为研究对象,运用"灰色马尔可夫链"模型预测理论为主的方法,对世界田径锦标赛男子速度类项目发展趋势进行了分析,并对第14届世界田径锦标赛男子速度类项目夺牌最低成绩进行预测。研究指出:第1-13届世界田径锦标赛男子速度类项目总体发展状况为200m>100m>4×400m接力>110m栏>400m>4×100m接力>400m栏;从发展稳定性角度看,男子110m栏、400m两个项目增长速度相当,但110m栏成绩发展状况更稳定,发展趋势更好,400m栏成绩发展稳定性最差。男子4×100m接力发展优于4×400m接力;成绩波动振幅男子100 m均较其它项目大。全部项目中4×100m成绩发展优于其它项目。三个平跑项目中,100m发展优于200m、400m。110m栏成绩发展优于400m栏。第14届田径世锦赛速度类项目前3名最低预测成绩为:100m9.89s、200m20.04s、400m44.16s、110m栏13.05s、400m栏48.29s、4×100m接力37.67s、4×400m接力180.46s。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this study is to provide valuable data for China sports teams so that they can perform targeted training and make effective game plans for the 14th World Athletics Championships. The best three scores of men’s speed-oriented events between the first and the thirteenth World Athletics Championships were taken as the research object. The study,by using the Grey-Markov Chain Model, analyzes the general pattern of men’s speed-oriented events at these championships,and predicts the minimum scores for a medal. The results indicate a pattern of 200m > 100m > 4 × 400m relay > 110m hurdling > 400m > 4 × 100m relay > 400m hurdling.As far as consistency is concerned,speeds for the 110m hurdling and the 400m were on the increase,with the former witnessing more stability and a better momentum,and the 400m hurdling posted the worst stability. Better development was recorded for the 4 × 100m relay than the 4 × 400m relay while the greatest instability occurred in the 100m. The 4 × 100m developed better than any other events. Of the three non-hurdling events,the 100m running performed better than the 200m and 400m events while of the hurdling events,the 110m hurdling saw better results than the 400m hurdling. Our prediction for the lowest scores for a medal is as follows: 9. 89 s for 100m,20. 04s for 200m,44. 16s for 400m,13. 05s 110 m hurdles,48. 29s for 400m hurdles,37. 67s for 4 × 100m relay,and 180. 46 s for 4 × 400m relay.更多还原