【摘要】 通过建立含有人口老龄化因素的产业结构演进模型,从理论上研究了人口老龄化对产业结构演进的影响。在市场体系相对完善的经济体中,产值结构与就业结构具有一致性的倾向;在静态条件下,人口老龄化程度提高的影响效应表现为农业部门就业比重上升,工业部门就业比重下降,而服务业就业比重有不确定性。在人口老龄化对需求影响效应大于其供给效应的情况下,人口老龄化通常具有提高服务业比重,促进服务业发展,而相对不利于工业部门发展的效应。当进一步考虑人口老龄化对各部门生产效率的影响时,其总体效果会趋于复杂化。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discusses theoretically the effect of population aging on industrial structure evolution through building the industrial structure evolution model including population aging factor.When the market system is relatively perfect, production value structure and employment structure tend to be more consistent; the influential effects of population aging are the rising employment proportion of agricultural sector, the declining employment proportion of industrial sector, and the uncertain employment proportion of service industry. If the effects of population aging on the demands increase, the proportion of service industry can be raised. This is not in favor of the development of industrial sector.更多还原