【摘要】 针对目前航空维修单位风险管理工作中普遍遇到的如何全面、规范、准确地识别危险源,如何科学计算和评价风险问题,提出一种危险源识别方法和风险分析方法。首先,设计维修系统的危险源引导词,并给出危险源描述方法和识别流程,以规范识别危险源;然后,设计危险源导致潜在不良后果引导词,在引导词的指引下确定危险源的所有潜在不良后果;最后,利用模糊综合评价法计算危险源导致潜在不良后果的风险。以某维修单位新增设备为例进行了危险源识别和风险计算工作,结果表明:该方法能够快速、全面、规范地找到危险源和危险源潜在不良后果,能够更为科学地计算风险,为进一步风险控制奠定基础。本方法力图使风险管理工作规范有效,并为行业内风险数据积累和分享、数据分析与预测等奠定基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 For properly and comprehensively recognizing the hazard that the aviation maintenance organization often meet in their risk management,and for evaluating scientifically the risk,a new hazard recognizing and risk analysis method.First,a hazard guiding thesaurus was designed and the hazard description method and the recognizing procedure were presented,for recognizing the hazard properly.Then the guiding thesaurus of the potential negative consequences led by the hazard was designed,with which all the potential negative consequences could be confirmed.Finally,the risk of the potential consequences was calculated by using the fuzzy integrated assessment.This method was applied on recognizing the hazard and calculating the risk brought by a new device bought by some aviation maintenance unit as an example.The result showed that this method can find the hazard and the potential consequences more quickly and comprehensively.The method mentioned in this essay tries to make the risk management standard and efficient,also creates a foundation for the accumulation and sharing the statistics of risks,and for the statistics analysis,prediction etc.更多还原