【摘要】 基于R&D项目进度计划的柔性影响因素分析,本文构建了进度计划柔性评价指标体系,采取模糊评价方法对R&D项目进行分析,并将柔性管理与关键链技术相结合,通过识别R&D项目关键链进度计划缓冲柔性所对应的实物期权,确定期权的定价模型,同时,基于二叉树模型构造了R&D项目关键链进度计划的柔性价值优化模型。最后,结合实例对R&D项目进度计划的柔性进行评价并作了价值优化。结论显示:对R&D项目进度计划中的缓冲柔性进行重新设计很有必要,当柔性设计得合理时,可以使用最小的成本获得最大的效益;同时,柔性价值能为优化设计以及如何提高进度计划应对环境变化的能力提供决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Analyzing the factors influencing the flexibility of R&D project schedule management,an index system is founded and the project is evaluated with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This paper applies flexibility theory to the area of critical chain R&D project schedulemanagement,and identifies the real options which the buffer flexibility in the system is considered as,and determined the pricing model of options. The flexibility value function was founded based on the binary method. Finally, the model is applied to the real- world project. Results indicate that it’s worth redesigning the buffer flexibility. When it is reasonable,the maximized benefit can be obtained with the minimized cost. The flexibility value can also provide decision reference for improving design and ability to deal with the environment uncertainties.更多还原