【摘要】 以预测矿井的相对瓦斯涌出量为目的,提出灰色-分源预测的新方法,构建了灰色-分源预测的数学模型,即将灰色预测与分源预测相结合,用灰色理论对采煤工作面的相对瓦斯涌出量和掘进工作面的绝对瓦斯涌出量作长期预测,再将预测结果代入分源预测计算公式中,对矿井相对瓦斯涌出量进行预测;该方法起到了取长补短的作用,既克服了单独应用时灰色理论预测精度低、分源预测短期性的缺点,又将灰色理论预测的长期性和分源预测的准确性结合了起来。文中详细介绍了灰色-分源预测方法的计算流程及数学模型,最后通过实例验证了该方法具有可行性,可实现煤矿瓦斯涌出量的中长期动态预测,准确度较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,to predict the relative gas emission rate in mine,a new grey and separated resources prediction method was proposed,and the mathematical model of gray-separate source prediction was constructed,that is,by the combination of grey and separate source predictions,the grey theory was used first to make long-term predictions for the relative gas emission in mining coal face and the absolute gas emission in drilling face,then the prediction results were substituted in calculation formula of separated resource model for the prediction of relative gas emission rate in the mine.This method has overcome the low prediction accuracy of grey theory and the short-term prediction of separate source method,and has combined the long-term prediction of grey theory with the high accuracy of separate source prediction.Moreover,the calculation steps and mathematical model of gray-separate source prediction method were introduced in detail in this paper,and the accuracy and feasibility of this method were finally verified by engineering examples.Thus,due to its high prediction accuracy,it can realize the medium and long term dynamic prediction of gas emission rate in coal mines.更多还原