【摘要】 为了以有效的方式反映决策者的心理和行为特征,提出基于不确定语言信息熵和前景理论的产品规划方案选择方法。客户代表使用不确定语言变量表征本企业及竞争对手产品的竞争性,利用信息熵的方法确定各项客户需求项目的竞争优先次序,据此得出产品规划的备选方案;引入前景理论的思想,依据备选方案的投入成本,计算各个方案的成本感知价值;再次,计算不同风险场景和盈利场景的价值和权重,确定各个方案的风险感知价值和盈利感知价值;依据成本感知价值、风险感知价值和盈利感知价值,确定各个备选方案的综合感知价值,并据此得到产品规划的最优方案。以PE破碎机的改进为例,说明了所提方法的实用性和可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 To reflect the characteristics of decision-makers’ psychology and behavior in an effective way,an approach for selecting product plan alternative based on uncertain linguistic information entropy and prospect theory is presented.Firstly,uncertain linguistic variables are used to express customer representatives’ preference values of a company and its competitors,and the competition priority ratings of each customer requirement are determined based on information entropy,then,the product plan alternatives can be developed.Secondly,the idea of prospect theory is introduced to analyze the alternatives’ cost,and the cost perceived values(CPVs) of each alternative are calculated.Thirdly,the values and weights of each risk scene and earnings scene are calculated to obtain the risk perceived values(RPVs) and earning perceived values(EPVs).Finally,according to combination of the CPVs,the RPVs and the EPVs,the comprehensive values of each alternative are determined to get the best alternative.A case study of PE crusher is given to prove the practicality and reliability of the proposed approach.更多还原