【摘要】 为确保南疆224团滴灌条件下枣树高效节水灌溉制度研究项目顺利实施,本文采用层次分析法(AHP)以四种不同的拟选试验方案为对象,开展风险调查、风险识别和风险建模评判。经计算,在此科研项目实施中对待技术、投资、时间、协调和安全五个因素,重要性从大到小排序应为:安全,其权重34%;技术,权重22%;投资,权重19%;时间,权重17%;协调问题,权重8%。经过综合权向量计算,以当前农户灌水定额375m3/hm2为基础,上下依次浮动10%的方案为风险最小的最优方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to insure that the research project of the jujube drip irrigation schedule in the 224th Regiment of Xinjiang can be implemented successfully,Analytic Hierarchy Process is applied in this paper and four different test schemes are put forward,then the risk investigation,the risk identification and the judgment of risk modeling are promoted.Through the calculation,the order of the importance of the five factors in the implementation of the scientific research,including technology,investment,time,cooperation and safety,from high to low is safety,technology,investment,time,and cooperation.The weight ratio is 34%,22%,19%,17%,and 8%,respectively.After the integrate weight vector calculation,the scheme of 375 m3/hm2 with 10% more or shorter scheme is the optimal one with the least risk.更多还原