【摘要】 一国金融开放策略的核心是根据初始条件的变化,动态择机安排合适的金融开放次序和尺度,实现开放综合效益的最大化。本文运用基于综合效益的门槛回归模型对多个发达国家和发展中国家1980—2005年面板数据进行分析,通过考察初始条件对开放增长和风险效应的作用,建立金融开放初始条件成熟度评估系统并分析中国现阶段开放条件成熟度。研究表明,金融发展、制度质量、贸易开放和宏观经济政策等对金融开放结果有显著门槛作用。从2005年以后情况来看,中国金融开放整体及FDI流入开放、股本证券投资流出开放和债务资本流出开放对促进经济增长和抑制金融风险有较强作用,而受制于金融发展、制度质量和外汇储备等方面的不足,放开股本证券流入、债务资本流入和FDI流出的条件并不成熟。更多还原

【Abstract】 The core policy of a country’s financial openness is to dynamically arrange a suitable openness order and scale,maximize the comprehensive benefits of financial openness. Using threshold regression model to analyze the data of developed and developing country from 1980 to 2005,and through examining the effect of initial conditions affecting the open growth and risk,we establish the maturity assessment system and analyze the China’s current maturity of open conditions. The empirical studies have shown that the initial conditions including financial development,institutional quality,trade openness and macroeconomic policies have remarkable threshold effect on financial openness’ s economic growth effects and currency crisis effects. From the evaluated results of financial openness initial conditions after 2005 in China,Chinese financial openness,FDI inflow openness,equity securities investments outflow openness and debt capital outflow openness have strong effects on promoting economic growth and controlling financial risks. But restrained by the inadequacy of financial development,institution quality and foreign exchange reserves,it is not the suitable time to release the equity securities outflow,debt capital inflows and FDI outflow now.更多还原